I think we are missing something

[PPQer]

The thing that strikes me about the C-19 thing is that everyone calling for everything to be locked down, works for government.  Experts in the private sector are saying it's the wrong approach.

[RenoF250]

1 hour ago, UHLAWPUP said:

I think you mistake politicians for doctors.

I think you miss the fact that doctors said there would be 2M dead, doctors said we needed to lock down, doctors said we did not need face masks and then changed their mind.  The doctors have been plenty wrong.  I do understand better safe than sorry but that train left the station.  That does not justify nonsensical closings of remote areas and gestapo lock down tactics.

[UHLAWPUP]

1 hour ago, RenoF250 said:

I think you miss the fact that doctors said there would be 2M dead, doctors said we needed to lock down, doctors said we did not need face masks and then changed their mind.  The doctors have been plenty wrong.  I do understand better safe than sorry but that train left the station.  That does not justify nonsensical closings of remote areas and gestapo lock down tactics.

Perhaps, but let’s be fair.  The doctors were working with questionable data from some questionable sources.   They also needed time to get the healthcare system ready to handle a possible onslaught. They made mistakes, to be sure. But they did the best they could with what they had to work with. I shudder to think what would have happened without social distancing. They are ready now, and already the President and some state governors are working to reopen businesses safely. 
 

And, remember, remoteness did not guarantee safety. 

[jame]

I’d be curious to see some sort of metrics that show the level of concern of this virus compared to the age and condition of the individual.

I gladly took a temporary furlough from work.  I’m 60 with a few (nothing major) underlying health conditions.  I’m the oldest guy there, by far, with the rest of them aged between 25 and 35.  They think my response is knee jerk.

My thought is that if I’m wrong about my concern, I carry on.  If they’re wrong, many of us don’t.

[RenoF250]

26 minutes ago, jame said:

I’d be curious to see some sort of metrics that show the level of concern of this virus compared to the age and condition of the individual.

I gladly took a temporary furlough from work.  I’m 60 with a few (nothing major) underlying health conditions.  I’m the oldest guy there, by far, with the rest of them aged between 25 and 35.  They think my response is knee jerk.

My thought is that if I’m wrong about my concern, I carry on.  If they’re wrong, many of us don’t.

I think neither of you were wrong, you were higher risk health wise and did not need the money as much as they do and they are lower risk.  You each picked a risk profile that suited your situation.  That is what everyone should be allowed to do.

 

 

[tadbart]

6 hours ago, RenoF250 said:

I think neither of you were wrong, you were higher risk health wise and did not need the money as much as they do and they are lower risk.  You each picked a risk profile that suited your situation.  That is what everyone should be allowed to do.

 

 

This, exactly. I'm also basically furloughed, as the low man on the totem pole at my job. Financially, I can swing 4-6 months without dipping into retirements and investments. I REALLY don't want to test those limits.

But just in case this thing turned out to be a monster plague, I didn't really complain about the change in status. If some contract work comes up, I'll take it in the meantime. But if the world starts spinning again, I'll go back to work at the furlough gig.

[janice6]

12 hours ago, UHLAWPUP said:

Perhaps, but let’s be fair.  The doctors were working with questionable data from some questionable sources.   They also needed time to get the healthcare system ready to handle a possible onslaught. They made mistakes, to be sure. But they did the best they could with what they had to work with. I shudder to think what would have happened without social distancing. They are ready now, and already the President and some state governors are working to reopen businesses safely. 
 

And, remember, remoteness did not guarantee safety. 

I am not going to take a "side" here, but.

Any decisions made with questionable data, are bad decisions. This is most apparent in the field of finance, where if you make a decision based on bad data companies fail.  The answer is to not rush to a bad decision, but to refine what data you are receiving until it has some basis in truth.  The immediate decisions that were made had no substantive statistical support. 

When you rush to make a decision it is usually the wrong decision.  Jes sayin.

I guess I just lied about my first statement.  Sorry.

[Fog]

17 hours ago, PPQer said:

The thing that strikes me about the C-19 thing is that everyone calling for everything to be locked down, works for government.  Experts in the private sector are saying it's the wrong approach.

You noticed that too?

The one entity that isn't shut down is government and the underlying politicians.

Still lots of in person meetings, buildings running round the clock, but only access for the special people, general public not admitted, for safety.

Local boat ramp, never seen a fish cop there in years, now they have one parked there to keep people from fishing. My friend, all alone in his kayak, was told he had to leave because it violated the social distancing order?

I launched from the beach on the other side and waved to the fish cop, he waved back and yelled something, so nice of him to wish me luck like that!

 

[Huaco Kid]

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at The University of Washington has, again, lowered it's estimated US deaths from 2.2M to 61.5K.  Theirs was the model that everyone flaunted from the very beginning.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

The latest estimate is also within the expected death toll from the annual seasonal flu.

"Do you like data?"

"OK. Sure. I like data."

"HOW DO YOU LIKE THEM DATA!"

[Swampfox762]

26 minutes ago, Huaco Kid said:

The latest estimate is also within the expected death toll from the annual seasonal flu.

Yup.

"2018 U.S. deaths by flu: 61,000."

[NPTim]

On 4/5/2020 at 6:15 PM, janice6 said:

Just remember that some Americans buy their drugs from India, while the "people in the know" tell you they aren't as good.  If they aren't as good then why isn't it reflected in the death rate of a country with 1 Billion population.  If their drugs are as bad as some would have you think they would have a serious problem.

Said by a person that for a few years took medicine from India and was checked periodically by my physician as being in good health.

Most medications are made in India. Still want ALL medications made within our boarders. No problem with India, just more secure if it’s made here within our boarders.

[UHLAWPUP]

5 hours ago, janice6 said:

I am not going to take a "side" here, but.

Any decisions made with questionable data, are bad decisions. This is most apparent in the field of finance, where if you make a decision based on bad data companies fail.  The answer is to not rush to a bad decision, but to refine what data you are receiving until it has some basis in truth.  The immediate decisions that were made had no substantive statistical support. 

When you rush to make a decision it is usually the wrong decision.  Jes sayin.

I guess I just lied about my first statement.  Sorry.

No need to be sorry. I think the fault was on the data providers, not the doctors who were told it was fact.

[NPTim]

Call me paranoid, but I’m not gonna get tested for  covid-19. I don’t trust that my DNA wouldn’t be cataloged. I might trust a point of care test as long as it’s not sent off for confirmation.

[Fog]

13 hours ago, NPTim said:

Call me paranoid, but I’m not gonna get tested for  covid-19. I don’t trust that my DNA wouldn’t be cataloged. I might trust a point of care test as long as it’s not sent off for confirmation.

Yep. This whole thing stinks, looks more like a coup than a pandemic, with China manipulating everything behind the scenes, who knows where it will go.

[GT4494]

13 hours ago, NPTim said:

Call me paranoid, but I’m not gonna get tested for  covid-19. I don’t trust that my DNA wouldn’t be cataloged. I might trust a point of care test as long as it’s not sent off for confirmation.

Unfortunately some of us have had fingerprints, palm prints and iris scans as part of working.  Don't think DNA will add much to their database. 

[gwalchmai]

Presented for your perusal:

 

Edited April 12, 2020 by gwalchmai

[janice6]

57 minutes ago, GT4494 said:

Unfortunately some of us have had fingerprints, palm prints and iris scans as part of working.  Don't think DNA will add much to their database. 

DNA will effect Insurance costs and payouts, it's your health glitches.

[janice6]

53 minutes ago, gwalchmai said:

Presented for your perusal:

 

Bad data always makes for bad decisions.  Politicians make decisions based on what they want to accomplish, not for the benefit of the public. What do politicians want from you?

[Fog]

2 hours ago, GT4494 said:

Unfortunately some of us have had fingerprints, palm prints and iris scans as part of working.  Don't think DNA will add much to their database. 

I'm in the same boat, but that doesn't mean I'm going to give them any more.