Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

[gwalchmai]

Sense.

https://amgreatness.com/2020/03/21/covid-19-the-elephant-and-the-house-cat/

Quote

If that is the true rate, locking down the world with potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totally irrational. It’s like an elephant being attacked by a house cat. Frustrated and trying to avoid the cat, the elephant accidentally jumps off a cliff and dies.

More at link/ Worth the read.

[DWARREN123]

Too much panic and not enough common sense and logic.

The saying "I am from the Government and am here to Help" means "I am in charge now, do what I say".

[johnbt]

"Meanwhile, somewhere between 22,000 and more than 50,000 people have died from the seasonal flu in the United States this year. Why is there no panic about that?"

 

Because the regular old flu tends to be transmitted by people showing obvious symptoms. They're easier to avoid.

The new flu doesn't show symptoms for 7 to 14 days and in many of the young, stronger folks doesn't show much in the way of symptoms at all. If you were infected, but showing no symptoms, how many people would you come in contact with in the course of a normal week or two? How many would be infected and how many people would they come in contact with in the following week or two? How fast would the medical system be overwhelmed?

Maybe the people agreeing to limit social contact are smart enough to see that it is needed and not the dumbbutts you think they are. I know many people that think the state and fed governments were late to the party and should have acted earlier.

 

[gwalchmai]

7 minutes ago, johnbt said:

Maybe the people agreeing to limit social contact are smart enough to see that it is needed and not the dumbbutts you think they are.

Maybe, but I don't think so. Remember "security theater"?

[janice6]

1 hour ago, johnbt said:

"Meanwhile, somewhere between 22,000 and more than 50,000 people have died from the seasonal flu in the United States this year. Why is there no panic about that?"

 

Because the regular old flu tends to be transmitted by people showing obvious symptoms. They're easier to avoid.

The new flu doesn't show symptoms for 7 to 14 days and in many of the young, stronger folks doesn't show much in the way of symptoms at all. If you were infected, but showing no symptoms, how many people would you come in contact with in the course of a normal week or two? How many would be infected and how many people would they come in contact with in the following week or two? How fast would the medical system be overwhelmed?

Maybe the people agreeing to limit social contact are smart enough to see that it is needed and not the dumbbutts you think they are. I know many people that think the state and fed governments were late to the party and should have acted earlier.

 

People fear that which they know nothing about.  Regardless of the truth.

[Dric902]

Lemmings

[Walt Longmire]

I've never known the 'regular flu' to be bad enough that we need temporary morgues, tents to house patients in parking lots, ships for the sick, refer vans for the bodies.

[Dric902]

4 minutes ago, Walt Longmire said:

I've never known the 'regular flu' to be bad enough that we need temporary morgues, tents to house patients in parking lots, ships for the sick, refer vans for the bodies.

We don’t for this either

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[Dric902]

From our old friend Lawdog;

Stop panicking over bad data

 

Sit, down, pour a bourbon, light a cigar, and indulge me in a mental exercise.

In this exercise, postulate that we have a population of a thousand people.

In this population, a disease gets loose -- we'll call it "Albino Brain Chiggers" -- and one hundred people wind up in the hospital. Of the hundred in hospital, two of them die.

That's a 2% mortality rate, and is fairly significant

However, turns out that a hundred other people had Albino Brain Chiggers, but it was a mild case that looked a lot like the usual seasonal respiratory illness, and they did what they always do: drank water, took Motrin, changed their socks, and drove on.

Since they didn't bother getting medical attention, their stats don't get counted, but they should: because it means that 200 people had ABC, but only two died -- which is a mortality rate of 1%.

Hmm.

Take a sip, have a puff.

Now, let's go one further. Let us postulate that half of all Albino Brain Chigger cases are "asymptomatic", that is, the folks that have it never know. They continue about their lives, never getting sick, and, thus ... never seeking medical attention. And never getting tested.

Half means that actually 400 people had ABC. And only two died.

That's ... let me get my shoes off ...

... A 0.5% mortality rate.

The data regarding the Wuhan Virus you are currently getting is corrupted. Badly.

It's corrupted because we had to develop a test for this thing, the numbers of tests are still kind of limited, and because of that we're only testing sick people. We're not testing the mild cases that just drive on, and we're damned well not testing the asymptomatic cases.

It's also corrupted because -- let's face it: Anybody who trusts any information from the Chinese Government, or any socialist government for that matter, should have their Licence To Adult taken away.

And since this whole mess started in China, a whole bunch of people who ought to know better are still using mortality numbers provided by the Chinese Government.

(Willing to bet that "Death by COVID-19" has overtaken "Death by Suicide" amongst wide swaths of Chinese dissidents, wrong-thinkers, political prisoners, and other folks deemed "undesirable" by the Chinese government.)

Be that as it may, the Chinese government can, will, and has lied to the rest of the world about things much less important than the Wuhan Virus.

Corruption also comes from tests with false positives, false negatives, people who still think "over-reacting is the best way to proceed" if they're in doubt; and myriad uncountable other issues in the complicated problem that is a new illness.

Not to mention that at least one non-Chinese country is skewing the statistics regarding what"Death by COVID-19" actually is (I'm looking at you, Italy) and the plain and simple fact that not only do the testing protocols vary from country-to-country, they frequently vary between health systems in a single country.

Too long; didn't read:

Stop panicking over the mortality percentage. It's artificially elevated, and will only come down as testing improves.

Comments closed, because quite frankly the pearl-clutching is grating my nerves something fierce.

LawDog

http://thelawdogfiles.blogspot.com/2020/03/stop-panicking-over-bad-data.html

 

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[Walt Longmire]

15 minutes ago, Dric902 said:

We don’t for this either

.

Explain the hospital ships on the west coast, and the temporary morgues and refer trucks in NY. Perhaps the news has been lying about these?

[Dric902]

8 minutes ago, Walt Longmire said:

Explain the hospital ships on the west coast, and the temporary morgues and refer trucks in NY. Perhaps the news has been lying about these?

Oh, they are there

‘need’ was the operative word. NY has had 285 ‘related’ deaths.

hardly the temp morgues and refer truck level of rampant death.

(NY had 3200 opioid deaths)

 

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Edited March 25, 2020 by Dric902

[janice6]

8 minutes ago, Walt Longmire said:

Explain the hospital ships on the west coast, and the temporary morgues and refer trucks in NY. Perhaps the news has been lying about these?

They are real just as the over selling and hype by politicians and news media is very real.

The sky is falling and politicians run around to make the people belive they are doing something helpful when politicians have no idea or ability to be helpful to anyone.

We have nuclear weapons, it doesn't mean that we will use them.  

 

Edited March 25, 2020 by janice6

[gwalchmai]

24 minutes ago, Dric902 said:

We don’t for this either

Interesting, and I agree something sounds fishy. Can you 'splain?

[janice6]

We also had a spat of talk of the government stockpiling body bags some while ago for some speculation of impending doom, that didn't pan out in reality also.   The ships are real, the need is not!

I believe this was the claim:  The Obama administration has ordered $1 billion worth of 'disposable coffins' for use with 'FEMA camps.'

Edited March 25, 2020 by janice6

[Dric902]

1 minute ago, gwalchmai said:

Interesting, and I agree something sounds fishy. Can you 'splain?

Marketing spending to the population. The best way to spend on the agenda is when the people are demanding it.

selling government control as a necessity. 
“We’re not going to reopen the country all at once” https://www.redstate.com/joesquire/2020/03/25/stop-freaking-out-were-not-going-to-re-open-the-country-all-at-once/

the very wording itself should outrage free Americans.

the Republic doesn’t die with a civil war....but with cheers and applause

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[Dric902]

2 minutes ago, janice6 said:

We also had a spat of talk of the government stockpiling body bags some while ago for some speculation of impending doom, that didn't pan out in reality also.   The ships are real, the need is not!

I believe this was the claim:  The Obama administration has ordered $1 billion worth of 'disposable coffins' for use with 'FEMA camps.'

Do you remember when

”Obamacare is a government takeover of 6% of the economy!!”

we were so naive. now it’s 

“hold my beer”

 

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[janice6]

The one thing we should know by now is that every prediction of the future is wrong.

[Huaco Kid]

 

[johnbt]

"We don’t for this either"

 

Not yet. I hope we never do. But the history of the disease shows that it can spread incredibly fast. I think almost everyone sees the need to try and slow it down as much as possible.

So sure, go out and about and do what you like. But please don't come near me or those I love because you could be a carrier and showing no symptoms. Just because you don't care if you get sick doesn't mean the rest of us want to catch it.

Are you trying to prove you're a man or something else?

[Dric902]

36 minutes ago, johnbt said:

So sure, go out and about and do what you like.

Are you trying to prove you're a man or something else?

I’m essential

 

and expendable

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[holyjohnson]

i`m gonna stay home and deal with it.

it sucks but it seems a simple and hands on way (pun) to be responsible in this.

is it over reacting?  Maybe but i can live with that for now and hopefully make fun of it later.

if this is as Contagious as is said and if its as deadly as they say to those Vulnerable to it i`m OK with waiting it out.

 

what i dislike is being told that doing nothing is somehow doing something, goes against my nature.

[Huaco Kid]

1 hour ago, johnbt said:

So sure, go out and about and do what you like. But please don't come near me or those I love because you could be a carrier and showing no symptoms. Just because you don't care if you get sick doesn't mean the rest of us want to catch it.

So go and sequester yourself, please.  Now you're safe.

It took four flights (should have been two) to get to the southeast on Monday,  because they're canceling everything.  Getting back home on Friday will be fun.  Three hotels.  All populated with carriers.  Customers.  Some restaurants will still seat you.  I'm supposed to be in Newark on Monday.

I'm just one big walking virus.

Stay home.  Stay safe.

[Fog]

This has gone way beyond stupid.

At one site when we show up we are now supposed to sign in a sheet that everyone else on the site has signed in on. Clear violation of guidelines about not spreading Wuhan virus.

Then the site PIC is supposed to take every ones temperature, without any medical training being only the first of many issues with that plan.

Then while onsite everyone is supposed to line up every hour and wash their hands at a single sink they have hauled in for the purpose.

Mind you on this site we normally show up, only talk to one or maybe two people the whole day, use only our personal equipment, then leave. They are trying to force increased interaction and potential contamination.

 

I will not comply. I don't have to work and certainly don't have to work there.

Most likely they will forget about it and not make an issue.

[gwalchmai]

Sounds like TSA all over again.

[janice6]

On 3/25/2020 at 6:53 PM, Huaco Kid said:

So go and sequester yourself, please.  Now you're safe.

It took four flights (should have been two) to get to the southeast on Monday,  because they're canceling everything.  Getting back home on Friday will be fun.  Three hotels.  All populated with carriers.  Customers.  Some restaurants will still seat you.  I'm supposed to be in Newark on Monday.

I'm just one big walking virus.

Stay home.  Stay safe.

Mebbe so, But your our virus!