Ukrainian Airliner That Crashed in Iran

[Eric]

I just heard about the Ukrainian 737 that went down near Tehran last night. I'm not not much of a believer in coincidence and an airliner crash unrelated to Iran's missile launches seems to stretch the odds a bit, at least for me.

I wonder if an overzealous Iranian ADA crew shot down the airliner, thinking it was a US aircraft? It's just an unsupported guess on my part, but I could see air defense sites in Iran being pretty amped up over what was happening last night and they must have at least entertained the possibility of an immediate US response. Maybe someone dropped the ball. Just a thought.

[SC Tiger]

13 minutes ago, Eric said:

I just heard about the Ukrainian 737 that went down near Tehran last night. I'm not not much of a believer in coincidence and an airliner crash unrelated to Iran's missile launches seems to stretch the odds a bit, at least for me.

I wonder if an overzealous Iranian ADA crew shot down the airliner, thinking it was a US aircraft? It's just an unsupported guess on my part, but I could see air defense sites in Iran being pretty amped up over what was happening last night and they must have at least entertained the possibility of an immediate US response. Maybe someone dropped the ball. Just a thought.

Was it a normal 737 or one of the "Max" line?  I think there are several. 

Are ALL Max 8 planes grounded around the world?

[Eric]

Just now, SC Tiger said:

Was it a normal 737 or one of the "Max" line?  I think there are several. 

Are ALL Max 8 planes grounded around the world?

737-800, from what I heard on the news while I drove this morning.

[Dric902]

Certainly a possibility 

Iran won’t release the flight recorder

 

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[tadbart]

Stout theory, backed up by Iran's refusal to release the black boxes. Also, I've heard there's video out there of the plane with an engine fire. It'll be interesting to see how this one plays out.

 

I'm still trying to figure out how Ukraine became such a big player in so much unpleasant stuff over the last few years.

[janice6]

2 hours ago, tadbart said:

Stout theory, backed up by Iran's refusal to release the black boxes. Also, I've heard there's video out there of the plane with an engine fire. It'll be interesting to see how this one plays out.

 

I'm still trying to figure out how Ukraine became such a big player in so much unpleasant stuff over the last few years.

Paying off American Congress persons and their children, via laundering American Foreign Aid would seem to be the most probable.

[tadbart]

14 minutes ago, janice6 said:

Paying off American Congress persons and their children, via laundering American Foreign Aid would seem to be the most probable.

for real. they've perfected soviet corruption.

[willie-pete]

Aluminum termites ?

 

 

 

 

And MH17

 

 

Coincidence; I think not.

[willie-pete]

5 hours ago, Eric said:

I just heard about the Ukrainian 737 that went down near Tehran last night. I'm not not much of a believer in coincidence and an airliner crash unrelated to Iran's missile launches seems to stretch the odds a bit, at least for me.

I wonder if an overzealous Iranian ADA crew shot down the airliner, thinking it was a US aircraft? It's just an unsupported guess on my part, but I could see air defense sites in Iran being pretty amped up over what was happening last night and they must have at least entertained the possibility of an immediate US response. Maybe someone dropped the ball. Just a thought.

 

[PPQer]

I read an Op-ed this afternoon that was opining that Iranian crews were probably on alert for retaliation from the US and had flight times and routes for air traffic into and out of the airport.  The plane that went down was an hour late leaving, so it didn't match what the crews had.

It was an opinion piece, but I think a pretty good guess.

 

[tous]

The Bedford Incident.

Good movie.

[tadbart]

rut-roh...

 

looks like the plane flew into a swarm of lead bees.

[blueiron]

The 737-800 airliner followed a normal departure profile until ~2,400 meters when it disappeared and the transponder went silent. 

A Persian [NOT the feline variety] with a twitchy trigger finger on an ADA system is a probable causation. 

Edited January 8, 2020 by blueiron

[blueiron]

According to some, it was a SA-15 Gauntlet [TOR] SAM that brought it down. The debris field is huge and the warhead is approximately 15 kilos of HE, with an intercept speed of ~2.75 Mach. 

[tadbart]

Ya know, Trump is a goddamned miracle worker at bringing the absolute worst in people and governments into the light. This President is so adept at providing enough rope to hang oneself, and stepping back to watch. He's Fred Astaire, Michelangelo, Mozart, Jimi Hendrix, and Babe Ruth, all mixed into one.

[Dric902]

1 hour ago, PPQer said:

I read an Op-ed this afternoon that was opining that Iranian crews were probably on alert for retaliation from the US and had flight times and routes for air traffic into and out of the airport.  The plane that went down was an hour late leaving, so it didn't match what the crews had.

It was an opinion piece, but I think a pretty good guess.

 

 

1 hour ago, blueiron said:

The 737-800 airliner followed a normal departure profile until ~2,400 meters when it disappeared and the transponder went silent. 

A Persian [NOT the feline variety] with a twitchy trigger finger on an ADA system is a probable causation. 

That’s starting to look like the most likely. 
why would they warn us about the missile attack so they don’t kill anybody, but then shoot down a plane. 
somebody got overzealous and jumped when they should have held

 

.

Edited January 8, 2020 by Dric902

[ASH]

[Walt Longmire]

You do realize they will blame this on us.

[willie-pete]

57 minutes ago, Dric902 said:

 

That’s starting to look like the most likely. 
why would they warn us about the missile attack so they don’t kill anybody, but then shoot down a plane. 
somebody got overzealous and jumped when they should have held

 

.

I saw reports that they had schedules of departures from the airport, but this flight was an hour later leaving. If true, probably accounts for the screw-up.  It was somewhere it should not be on a night they were probably expecting F-35's to roll in on them.

[tous]

There is a big difference between the RCS of an F-35 and a 737, and not many military aircraft will fly a nice, slow, straight course in Indian country.

Any air defense operator that makes that sort of error  needs more schooling.

 

[Dric902]

1 minute ago, tous said:

There is a big difference between the RCS of an F-35 and a 737, and not many military aircraft will fly a nice, slow, straight course in Indian country.

Any air defense operator that makes that sort of error  needs more schooling.

 

It helps when the people you are fighting are morons

 

.

[Dric902]

Do you remember MH 370?

there were all kinds of ways to track the plane. Maintenance pings, data downloads, etc that were automatic.

and sent to Boeing by satellite 

I wonder if there is some basic info, maintenance alerts of catastrophic failure, something along those lines.

.

Edited January 9, 2020 by Dric902

[kerbie18]

Doesn't a passenger jet transmit a transponder that identifies it? You know, to keep from getting blown out of sky?

[janice6]

4 hours ago, Walt Longmire said:

You do realize they will blame this on us.

Of course.  It's a common defense.  When you screw up your life you always blame people that didn't have anything to do with it.   It's a holdover from adolescent days.  Many outgrow it.

[tous]

Civil (and military)  transponders aren't for IFF purposes; they are so ATC can find them.

War aircraft in Indian country pretty much turn them off.