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What are the odds?


PNWguy
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There is a certain stretch of road on my daily commute to work and back that I will meet another vehicle going the other way 99.99% of the time.

There is about a 1/4-mile stretch of road on a 2-lane highway where there are a couple of houses out in the country, both with large gardens and a forested area to the West with lots of deer.

I have nearly hit a deer there several times.  Most of the time, my commute is during dark, so I like to have my brights on when going through this section.  But every single time, there is an oncoming car.  14 mile commute with maybe less than a dozen cars coming the other way, but every single time that I can remember, I have to drive through the deer suicide alley partially blinded due to oncoming traffic.

Driving home from work Sunday morning at 0600, not a single vehicle on the road.  Except one, and it was in that specific area.  

It's just weird.  It's like my own Bermuda triangle.

That video I posted of the near miss of the suicidal deer was that spot.  And of course you saw the oncoming car.

 

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15 minutes ago, Presguy said:

I'm gonna go with Occam's Razor (the simplest possible explanation): deer are stupid.

The odds of encountering deer in an area with a couple of large gardens and lots of forested cover nearby are not surprising.  Deer are stupid.

It's the odds of encountering an oncoming vehicle at that exact spot every single day that has me confused.

Now, if there were dozens of vehicles on that road, then the chance of encountering one in a 1/4 mile stretch of road would not be surprising.

1/4 mile divided by 14 miles is about a 1 in 56 chance of meeting a car there.  If there were 56 cars traveling that stretch of road then I have a pretty good chance of meeting one at that spot.  But when there's less than a dozen, or even just one, then the odds get increasingly rare.

It's just one of the weird things I think about on my commute...

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6 minutes ago, Presguy said:

And, late night/early morning commutes are great for seeing, and perhaps not-seeing, crazy stuff along highways.

Oh, we can turn this into a "weird stuff you've seen commuting" thread, lol.

My best one was back in 2002.  I'm driving to work to the Pullman-Moscow Airport at 0500 in the morning.  It's late Spring, barely light out, with a light drizzle.  I'm headed North on US Hwy 95 between Genesee and Moscow in my lifted F250 pickup when I see a lone figure walking along the shoulder of the road going South.  Moscow is just a couple of miles to the North, so if he broke down, he's walking the wrong way to get to the nearest town.

I immediately slow down.

The guy is wrapped in a big wool brown blanket, is white, goatee.  No shoes...

I get down to about 35 mph and about 200' from him when a feeling of absolute dread comes over me.  Something tells me to get the hell out of there.  I accelerate and as I go by, the guy looks at me with a complete and utter evil stare.

I get on my phone and call 911 and let them know of the strange pedestrian.

The next day I hear on the news that the responding deputy ended up shooting the man.

He had a large kitchen knife under the blanket and when the deputy approached him, he started shouting that he was satan and was going to kill the cop and came at him.  I knew the deputy.  He shot the guy several times as he was chased around his cop car.  Gun was a Beretta 96 .40 S&W, IIRC.  

Crazy guy survived but has a permanent colostomy bag now.  He was paranoid schizophrenic and off his meds.  Glad I didn't stop...

 

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I've had the same magnetic attraction to strange cars. Even in parking lots. I'm on a long trip and stop for a fast food break. I pick up my order at the drive through then head to the area of the parking lot far away from other cars. We're talking large parking lot and I park far far away from the nearest business or vehicles. Next thing you know some idiot drives up and parks right next to me. WTF!?! It's happened to me multiple times.  

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10 hours ago, PNWguy said:

The odds of encountering deer in an area with a couple of large gardens and lots of forested cover nearby are not surprising.  Deer are stupid.

It's the odds of encountering an oncoming vehicle at that exact spot every single day that has me confused.

Now, if there were dozens of vehicles on that road, then the chance of encountering one in a 1/4 mile stretch of road would not be surprising.

1/4 mile divided by 14 miles is about a 1 in 56 chance of meeting a car there.  If there were 56 cars traveling that stretch of road then I have a pretty good chance of meeting one at that spot.  But when there's less than a dozen, or even just one, then the odds get increasingly rare.

It's just one of the weird things I think about on my commute...

Many years ago they made a two lane highway into a 4 lane divided highway for about 60 miles, between my hometown and a large city.  The median was so wide and empty of anything but grass, that it could have been another two lanes.  In one sweeping curve they planted a small tree 1" or 2" diameter.  We got used to seeing that tree as an anomaly for a couple of years.  First time I saw a car off the road, it's grille was centered on the tree stump.

It got me thinking.  If there were two cars in the whole world, one day they would hit each other.  This flies in the face of statistics, but in the real world, the more rare the possibility, the greater the certainty it will happen.  

 

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10 hours ago, MikeG36 said:

I've had the same magnetic attraction to strange cars. Even in parking lots. I'm on a long trip and stop for a fast food break. I pick up my order at the drive through then head to the area of the parking lot far away from other cars. We're talking large parking lot and I park far far away from the nearest business or vehicles. Next thing you know some idiot drives up and parks right next to me. WTF!?! It's happened to me multiple times.  

I agree.  This happens to me all the time.  Sometimes, as an experiment, I will pick the most inconvenient spot that's isolated, and I still draw a "mate".  I think man is a pack animal and wants the security of "closeness".  Could also be an idiot that doesn't know any better.

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