SPOILERS! Question for the Brain Trust Here

[janice6]

9 minutes ago, RenoF250 said:

So you are saying we will be dropping like a rock ~30% correct?

I don't know enough about it to disagree but I tend to think there are so many macro factors trends are hard to really understand.  Trump is the first president in a long time to give the economy a reason to grow and I think it has more growing to do.  That said I think there are many stocks that are way overvalued that will take a beating.  I think we have too many stocks that do not issues dividends and their value is based solely on speculation, they are trading cards, worth only what someone will pay for them and you can only make a profit when you sell.  I stick with dividend paying stocks and go for the long term.  I have not been rewarded for that strategy though.

I have.  It works since 1998.

[RenoF250]

1 minute ago, janice6 said:

I have.  It works since 1998.

Can someone look at PCH and explain why it is going down?  I bought a bunch of lumber companies because I expect highly increased demand with real estate growth, hurricane, and fire damage rebuilding.  All seem to be doing well and stock price for all are going down.

[janice6]

Just now, RenoF250 said:

Can someone look at PCH and explain why it is going down?  I bought a bunch of lumber companies because I expect highly increased demand with real estate growth, hurricane, and fire damage rebuilding.  All seem to be doing well and stock price for all are going down.

Fear is contagious.  It doesn't have to be real, people just think that because others are afraid, they should be also.

[willie-pete]

44 minutes ago, RenoF250 said:

Can someone look at PCH and explain why it is going down?  I bought a bunch of lumber companies because I expect highly increased demand with real estate growth, hurricane, and fire damage rebuilding.  All seem to be doing well and stock price for all are going down.

My guess would be housing is starting to slow down from it's previous pace; a rate hike or two won't help any. Add to that a possible recession  in 2020 .

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/21/trump-economy-expected-to-slow-down-in-2019-before-possible-recession-in-2020.html

 

"

Juiced by tax cuts this year, the economy's performance peaked in the second quarter and is expected to increasingly lose steam in 2019, with growth slowing to a crawl and a recession looming.

That is one big reason the stock market has spiraled lower, as buyers rushed into Treasurys and yields on corporate debt snapped higher. Investors' views, in fact, may be even gloomier than those of economists.

Major firms this week have been releasing forecasts for next year, and both Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan see growth slowing to below 2 percent in the second half of 2019. But at the same time, the two firms expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates four times, while other economists believe the Fed may have to move at a slower pace."

 

 

None of that will help housing and building materials.

 

 

Edited December 23, 2018 by willie-pete

[tadbart]

9 hours ago, janice6 said:

I have.  It works since 1998.

how do you pick which stocks to buy? strictly dividend, or are you also looking for growth from the stock itself? who ya got?

[janice6]

4 minutes ago, tadbart said:

how do you pick which stocks to buy? strictly dividend, or are you also looking for growth from the stock itself? who ya got?

I have two companies I worked for, and one that my son worked for.  I only buy those companies I know a little about how they are run and their business intent. 

Although, one has been bought out and corporate has moved overseas.  I'm not comfortable with that one.  I also picked for dividends so when the stock market is down I am still making money.

Stocks are backup for me.

 

[janice6]

I will say this.  There are two primary government aircraft military contractors out there.  TWO!  Boeing and Lockheed Martin.  There are many smaller, but for prime contracts for major Tactical Aircraft/systems, there are only two.

Congress has passed a law that all "major" military contracts must be placed on competitive bid.  Their stock wax's and wanes depending on the military outlook, but they must stay solvent for competition sake.  Like it or not!

Edited December 24, 2018 by janice6

[RenoF250]

1 minute ago, janice6 said:

I will say this.  There are two primary government aircraft military contractors out there.  TWO!  Boeing and Lockheed Martin.  There are many smaller, but for prime contracts for major Tactical Aircraft/systems, there are only two.

Congress has passed a law that all "major" military contracts must be placed on competitive bid.  Their stock wax's and wanes depending on the military outlook, but they must stay solvent for competition sake.  Like it or not!

Sierra Nevada Corp is not as big as those two but they are growing fast and even competing for aircraft now.

[janice6]

Just now, RenoF250 said:

Sierra Nevada Corp is not as big as those two but they are growing fast and even competing for aircraft now.

Growing.  Who bid on the JSF.  Who bid on the ATF.  When they bid on multi-Billion Dollar programs they are competitive.

[RenoF250]

2 minutes ago, janice6 said:

Growing.  Who bid on the JSF.  Who bid on the ATF.  When they bid on multi-Billion Dollar programs they are competitive.

I know they are not there now just something to watch out for.  They are privately held though so you cannot invest in them.

[willie-pete]

36 minutes ago, tadbart said:

how do you pick which stocks to buy? strictly dividend, or are you also looking for growth from the stock itself? who ya got?

As an example, ExxonMobile ( XOM ) closed last at 68.12 and they pay a $3.28 dividend. That's a 4.8% dividend yield.

 

That's a bit better than your local bank is paying.

 

There is no guarantee they will keep the dividend at that rate; that's why I only buy big companies that have been around for a while. It would take something disastrous to happen before they would lower the dividend.  On top of that, they are trading at a 52 week low with the high being $89.  If this is a short term correction, there is a chance of capital appreciation if it gets back to its high.

[crockett]

10 hours ago, RenoF250 said:

So you are saying we will be dropping like a rock ~30% correct?

I don't know enough about it to disagree but I tend to think there are so many macro factors trends are hard to really understand.  Trump is the first president in a long time to give the economy a reason to grow and I think it has more growing to do.  That said I think there are many stocks that are way overvalued that will take a beating.  I think we have too many stocks that do not issues dividends and their value is based solely on speculation, they are trading cards, worth only what someone will pay for them and you can only make a profit when you sell.  I stick with dividend paying stocks and go for the long term.  I have not been rewarded for that strategy though.

Not necessarily like a rock, but based on technical analysis, there will be a 20 to 30% correction any time soon. This may happen over the course of a few weeks or up to one year. My best guess is that it will need 3 months.

By the way, this is - by far - not just my sentiment.

Day trading is indeed gambling. It has nothing to do with investment. That doesn't change the fact that day trading makes or breaks the market.

 

Edited December 24, 2018 by crockett

[crockett]

34 minutes ago, willie-pete said:

As an example, ExxonMobile ( XOM ) closed last at 68.12 and they pay a $3.28 dividend. That's a 4.8% dividend yield.

 

That's a bit better than your local bank is paying.

 

There is no guarantee they will keep the dividend at that rate; that's why I only buy big companies that have been around for a while. It would take something disastrous to happen before they would lower the dividend.  On top of that, they are trading at a 52 week low with the high being $89.  If this is a short term correction, there is a chance of capital appreciation if it gets back to its high.

 

XOM is on an ongoing downtrend since mid 2014. That alone is already bad news for any long-term ideas. That being said, IF the market doesn't tank in the next few months and pulls everything down, XOM MIGHT bounces off the old support from mid 2015 at around $67.

I would not buy into this stock yet and wait for a confirmation pullback AFTER it bounces. Otherwise you will be in for the ride.

Either way, the Simple Moving Average is pointing down, it is way below the Moving Average Exposition, which is also declining, the Relative Strength Index is at bottom AND pointing south, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence is upside down. All indicators that suggest further decline. See charting below.

 

 

[tadbart]

@crockett so this is a good example of a stock to short?

[tadbart]

Also, I like the idea of buying ALL of the games in town. .gov is gonna .gov, which means newer airplanes and bombs.

 

So, Boeing, Lockheed, and Raytheon are probably pretty sure bets?

[willie-pete]

13 minutes ago, crockett said:

 

XOM is on an ongoing downtrend since mid 2014. That alone is already bad news for any long-term ideas. That being said, IF the market doesn't tank in the next few months and pulls everything down, XOM MIGHT bounces off the old support from mid 2015 at around $67.

I would not buy into this stock yet and wait for a confirmation pullback AFTER it bounces. Otherwise you will be in for the ride.

Either way, the Simple Moving Average is pointing down, it is way below the Moving Average Exposition, which is also declining, the Relative Strength Index is at bottom AND pointing south, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence is upside down. All indicators that suggest further decline. See charting below.

 

 

You can't beat the dividend though.

 

[crockett]

7 minutes ago, tadbart said:

@crockett so this is a good example of a stock to short?

 

It dropped by 10% after the short-term decline was somewhat confirmed, and that is more than the DOW average in the past week, which would be a typical entry point for shorting, but for a day trader this is not a good deal at all. Most day trader don't swing anything in this market, hence they don't keep anything over night, and consequently we are looking for stocks that drop 10% on a single day, if not more.

 

 

[crockett]

15 minutes ago, willie-pete said:

You can't beat the dividend though.

 

 

4.8% per annum is chump change for any green day trader. Granted, it is much better than dealing with inflation or a funky savings account, but you still carry a huge risk of losing net liquidity, especially in this market. I have made twice as much within a couple minutes, and in average it takes me currently 10 days to make 5% with my VERY conservative trading style (usually waiting for bull flags and the associated breakout).

 

 

 

Edited December 24, 2018 by crockett

[crockett]

16 minutes ago, willie-pete said:

You can't beat the dividend though.

 

 

I don't have a YouTube channel anymore. Here a trading buddy using the same bullflag pattern. Made $12k within maybe 5 minutes.

 

 

 

[willie-pete]

Not a day trader; life's too short.

 

[crockett]

6 minutes ago, willie-pete said:

Not a day trader; life's too short.

 

I just pulled it up in my stock screener on a different broker platform.

 

 

It's a mixed bag, but 2 "avoids" would be enough for me, to be very careful with XOM.

Edited December 24, 2018 by crockett

[willie-pete]

35 minutes ago, crockett said:

I just pulled it up in my stock screener on a different broker platform.

 

 

It's a mixed bag, but 2 "avoids" would be enough for me, to be very careful with XOM.

I'm more of a fundamentals guy rather than a technician. I had Exxon for a while until it got stopped out in October. I was averaging about 18-20% using covered calls. I'm happy with that. Once this thing stops dropping, I'll probably get back in it.

 

For anybody interested.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4229891-exxon-mobil-near-5-percent-yield-low-valuation

 

[crockett]

As I said. Freefall kicking in. The DOW lost the next 3% today (and this was just half a market day due to Christmas) and the next red candle stick just popped up, right into my drawn and predicted downward trend.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 24, 2018 by crockett

[crockett]

12 hours ago, willie-pete said:

I'm more of a fundamentals guy rather than a technician. I had Exxon for a while until it got stopped out in October. I was averaging about 18-20% using covered calls. I'm happy with that. Once this thing stops dropping, I'll probably get back in it.

 

For anybody interested.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4229891-exxon-mobil-near-5-percent-yield-low-valuation

 

 

While DOW took ""only"" a 2.91% hit, XOM went down today by 3.83%, AND it broke pattern by falling through the support at around $67.50.

You do the math.

 

 

 

Edited December 24, 2018 by crockett

[willie-pete]

That's why I have been in 100% cash for the past two months.  On a positive note a forward div yield of 5% might look attractive to a few folks.

 

I'm getting closer, but not there yet. This market action is nutz right now.

 

I think todays action was based entirely on Mnuchin's call to the banks and the subsequent publicity. What was up with that?