SPOILERS! Question for the Brain Trust Here

[AerynSun2]

What are you thoughts on the current stock market decline and the future?

[kerbie18]

I'm not an expert. All I know is that I have a minimum of ten years, possibly 20 years, until I start cashing out anything at all. I'm just going to ignore things for the time being and ride it out. 

[willie-pete]

We are overdue for a bear market and a recession. After that, the market will go higher.

 

It's happened that way numerous times.

[Huaco Kid]

The variance, on the high/low is a normal occurrence of the market which accumulates on the averages of values, for which, percentages TRUMP!

[Huaco Kid]

Our Feds won't let it rip.

Because they diss him, also.

HIS plan, which they won't do, is to blow the **** out of it.

[Huaco Kid]

'Murica!

[Huaco Kid]

I voted, several times, to shut ourselves down.

It's not a threat.
More.

[Al Czervik]

1 hour ago, AerynSun2 said:

What are you thoughts on the current stock market decline and the future?

I submit that the current sell-off is based largely on the fear perpetrated by the media and the Fed rate increases, not real economic metrics.  Of course, some big hedge funds are in a bad place right now.  If they go kaput, it will send some bad ripples through the economy.

If the media hypes speculation that further Fed increases are imminent, and housing, etc, is trending down, and people buy it, the bear market will persist.

If rational thought based upon real numbers returns, the market will stabilize.

 

[ASH]

a holding pattern for me and i take for most folks ,  what i got  holding  will ride it out plus  i have my play account  and will buying adding more more to  sustained holder stocks,  and adding to my 60 /40 agressive. 

it is gonna get worse the bear was predicted awhile ago .  patience  and catty buying  is tight right now.  always have a fall back ,and as fonzie says SIT ON IT

[Dric902]

The market has always been a long term proposition.

longer than one or two administrations, longer than a couple of campaigns.

politicians at most play around the edges and have a short term effect.

stay in, keep a broad base, decide on an amount to “play with” by day trading/short term day to day interest.

 

 

dont panic

 

.

[tadbart]

I've got 18 years to go. I expect that the next 2-6 years might be a bit rough, albeit artificially, in an effort to F with our President and his dismantling of this NWO crap.

Every 2 weeks, I keep adding to my 401k and savings. When the stocks go down, my fund buys more shares than when the prices are high.

A few years back, the wife's boss lost 100k in value from his retirement due to the last major dip in the market. That's back, and doubled. If you're worried about today, tomorrow, or the near future, it might be a rough ride. Other than that, settle in and ride the ride.

[crockett]

Wrote this in another thread...

 

I posted the DOW chart below some 6 weeks ago in my Day Trading thread. The thin dark red trendlines and the red arrow are mine. This was my prediction.

 

 

 

 

And here we are 6 weeks later. Downtrend exactly within my drawn trendlines. It's a classic Double Top Reversal:

 

 

 

 

Since today we are in freefall because we broke the support at 23,300. The next major support level that should catch us in the end is at 15.300, which was the consolidation phase in 2014 / 2015. After the 7% drop in just one week that's another 30% to go.

 

 

PS: the last 7% in one week drop was right before the 2007 / 2008 crash.

You do the math.

As I have said before: pull out what ever you can. I'm not holding anything over night for the past 2 months. Only shorting and scalping.

[crockett]

Looks like some still don't grasp how to make a profit. You sell high, and you buy back in at low. You will waste a LOT of money if you ride through downtrends. What if you all of the sudden need the money due to health concerns or whatnot when the market crashed? You may very well walk away with a loss overall, let alone being hit by opportunity costs and inflation. You worked so hard for YOUR money, and now you let others AND the market gamble with it. I. Do. No. Understand.

Edited December 22, 2018 by crockett

[ASH]

2 hours ago, crockett said:

Looks like some still don't grasp how to make a profit. You sell high, and you buy back in at low. You will waste a LOT of money if you ride through downtrends. What if you all of the sudden need the money due to health concerns or whatnot when the market crashed? You may very well walk away with a loss overall, let alone being hit by opportunity costs and inflation. You worked so hard for YOUR money, and now you let others AND the market gamble with it. I. Do. No. Understand.

this is true ,  but im diversed  around the whole pie .  plus  i have 5 bank accounts,   mine , wifes ,  our joint ,   emergency funds,  play money.  all over a hundred grand,   my dad planned ahead longggggggggggggg ago  as so did i .   i will nit pick  what im looking for and sell or buy , but a complete crash  jump out the top floor window market is not got break me, 

ps  what looks good right now  to buy  since im retired  i got more time to keep up on it

[janice6]

3 hours ago, Dric902 said:

The market has always been a long term proposition.

longer than one or two administrations, longer than a couple of campaigns.

politicians at most play around the edges and have a short term effect.

stay in, keep a broad base, decide on an amount to “play with” by day trading/short term day to day interest.

 

 

dont panic

 

.

Looking back on my market worth, I went through, IIIC, 3 of these since my retirement.  Wait and the bargains are there, wait more and the profits will be also.

[Moeman]

We gave free money, we rose the debt at tax payers expense... so let us see if the so called money management can do something like old school ones.... but in both cases they make money with the market going up and down. Bonds? 

[GPM]

I sold 50% of my already rather conservative stock holdings a couple of weeks ago. I'm now 50% cash, 25% stocks, 25% bonds. Fed increases, on again, off again tariff issues, Trump, and incoming Democrat House are enough to get me into a wait and see mode. As I'm retired and not needing any of my savings at this time, I'll gladly forego any possible gain from a bounce and protect what I have. All these things will pass and buying opportunities be there when we find a bottom. I won't try to catch that bottom, but I'll get back in mid upswing. 

[DrB]

My retirement in a couple of years rides on this.  I have seen it up and down through the years but this close to retirement not fun for me.

[willie-pete]

5 hours ago, Moeman said:

We gave free money, we rose the debt at tax payers expense... so let us see if the so called money management can do something like old school ones.... but in both cases they make money with the market going up and down. Bonds? 

No, with interest rates rising, bond values go down.

[Moeman]

15 minutes ago, willie-pete said:

No, with interest rates rising, bond values go down.

Then where to park money?

[willie-pete]

11 minutes ago, Moeman said:

Then where to park money?

I am just sitting on a lot of cash since I got stopped out in early October. I was waiting for the election to get over before I got back in, but it didn't go the way I expected.  I don't think we have seen a bottom yet.

We are overdue for a bear market and a recession; I think I will stay in cash for a while until I see some clear signals

Some people say gold is a good investment in times of inflation. It seems to be anticipating some rate hikes lately.

 

 

[minderasr]

Buy the dip?

[willie-pete]

3 hours ago, minderasr said:

Buy the dip?

Depends which dip you are talking about.

 

[Al Czervik]

11 hours ago, willie-pete said:

I am just sitting on a lot of cash since I got stopped out in early October. I was waiting for the election to get over before I got back in, but it didn't go the way I expected.  I don't think we have seen a bottom yet.

We are overdue for a bear market and a recession; I think I will stay in cash for a while until I see some clear signals

Some people say gold is a good investment in times of inflation. It seems to be anticipating some rate hikes lately.

 

 

$50k/oz, here we come!

 

 

 

 

 

 

?

[RenoF250]

21 hours ago, crockett said:

Wrote this in another thread...

 

I posted the DOW chart below some 6 weeks ago in my Day Trading thread. The thin dark red trendlines and the red arrow are mine. This was my prediction.

 

 

 

 

And here we are 6 weeks later. Downtrend exactly within my drawn trendlines. It's a classic Double Top Reversal:

 

 

 

 

Since today we are in freefall because we broke the support at 23,300. The next major support level that should catch us in the end is at 15.300, which was the consolidation phase in 2014 / 2015. After the 7% drop in just one week that's another 30% to go.

 

 

PS: the last 7% in one week drop was right before the 2007 / 2008 crash.

You do the math.

As I have said before: pull out what ever you can. I'm not holding anything over night for the past 2 months. Only shorting and scalping.

So you are saying we will be dropping like a rock ~30% correct?

I don't know enough about it to disagree but I tend to think there are so many macro factors trends are hard to really understand.  Trump is the first president in a long time to give the economy a reason to grow and I think it has more growing to do.  That said I think there are many stocks that are way overvalued that will take a beating.  I think we have too many stocks that do not issues dividends and their value is based solely on speculation, they are trading cards, worth only what someone will pay for them and you can only make a profit when you sell.  I stick with dividend paying stocks and go for the long term.  I have not been rewarded for that strategy though.