Jump to content

EV Reality


DAKA
 Share

Recommended Posts

 
I urge all to read.  Author unknown. 

 

A Dose of Reality

 

Depending how and when you count, Japan's Toyota is the world's largest automaker. According to Wheels, Toyota and Volkswagen vie for the title of the world's largest, with each taking the crown from the other as the market moves. That's including Volkswagen's inherent advantage of sporting twelve brands versus Toyota's four. Audi, Lamborghini, Porsche, Bugatti, and Bentley are included in the Volkswagen brand family.

GM, America's largest automaker, is about half Toyota's size thanks to its 2009 bankruptcy and restructuring. Toyota is actually a major car manufacturer in the United States; in 2016 it made about 81% of the cars it sold in the U.S. right here in its nearly half a dozen American plants. If you're driving a Tundra, RAV4, Camry, or Corolla it was probably American-made in a red state. Toyota was among the first to introduce gas-electric hybrid cars into the market, with the Prius twenty years ago. It hasn't been afraid to change the car game.

 

All of this is to point out that Toyota understands both the car market and the infrastructure that supports it, perhaps better than any other manufacturer on the planet. It hasn't grown its footprint through acquisitions, as Volkswagen has, and it hasn't undergone bankruptcy and bailout as GM has. Toyota has grown by building reliable cars for decades.

 

When Toyota offers an opinion on the car market, it's probably worth listening to. This week, Toyota reiterated an opinion it has offered before. That opinion is straightforward: The world is not yet ready to support a fully electric auto fleet.

Toyota's head of energy and environmental research Robert Wimmer testified before the Senate this week, and said: "If we are to make dramatic progress in electrification, it will require overcoming tremendous challenges, including refueling infrastructure, battery availability, consumer acceptance, and affordability.”

Wimmer's remarks come on the heels of GM's announcement that it will phase out all gas internal combustion engines (ICE) by 2035. Other manufacturers, including Mini, have followed suit with similar announcements.

 

Tellingly, both Toyota and Honda have so far declined to make any such promises. Honda is the world's largest engine manufacturer when you take its boat, motorcycle, lawnmower, and other engines it makes outside the auto market into account. Honda competes in those markets with Briggs & Stratton and the increased electrification of lawnmowers, weed trimmers, and the like.
Wimmer noted that while manufacturers have announced ambitious goals, just 2% of the world's cars are electric at this point. For price, range, infrastructure, affordability, and other reasons, buyers continue to choose ICE over electric, and that's even when electric engines are often subsidized with tax breaks to bring pricetags down.

The scale of the switch hasn't even been introduced into the conversation in any systematic way yet. According to FinancesOnline, there are 289.5 million cars just on U.S. roads as of 2021. About 98 percent of them are gas-powered. Toyota's RAV4 took the top spot for purchases in the U.S. market in 2019, with Honda's CR-V in second. GM's top seller, the Chevy Equinox, comes in at #4 behind the Nissan Rogue. This is in the U.S. market, mind. GM only has one entry in the top 15 in the U.S. Toyota and Honda dominate, with a handful each in the top 15.

 

Toyota warns that the grid and infrastructure simply aren't there to support the electrification of the private car fleet. A 2017 U.S. government study found that we would need about 8,500 strategically-placed charge stations to support a fleet of just 7 million electric cars. That's about six times the current number of electric cars but no one is talking about supporting just seven million cars. We should be talking about powering about 300 million within the next twenty years, if all manufacturers follow GM and stop making ICE cars.
 
Simply put, we are gonna need a bigger energy boat to deal with connecting all those cars to the power grids, a WHOLE LOT bigger.

 

But instead of building a bigger boat, we may be shrinking the boat we have now. The power outages in California and Texas — the largest U.S. states by population and by car ownership — exposed issues with powering needs even at current usage levels. Increasing usage of wind and solar, neither of which can be throttled to meet demand, and both of which prove unreliable in crisis, has driven some coal and natural gas generators offline Wind simply runs counter to needs — it generates too much power when we tend not to need it, and generates too little when we need more. The storage capacity to account for this doesn't exist yet.

 

We will need much more generation capacity to power about 300 million cars if we're all going to be forced to drive electric cars. Whether we're charging them at home or charging them on the road, we will be charging them frequently. Every gas station you see on the roadside today will have to be wired to charge electric cars, and charge speeds will have to be greatly increased. Current technology enables charges in "as little as thirty minutes," according to Kelly Blue Book. That best-case scenario fast charging cannot be done on home power. It uses direct current and specialized systems. Charging at home on alternating current can take a few hours to overnight to fill the battery, and will increase the home power bill. That power, like all electricity in the United States, comes from generators using natural gas, petroleum, coal, nuclear, wind, solar, or hydroelectric power according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. I left out biomass because, despite Austin, Texas' experiment with purchasing a biomass plant to help power the city, biomass is proving to be irrelevant in the grand energy scheme thus far. Austin didn't even turn on its biomass plant during the recent freeze.

Half an hour is an unacceptably long time to spend at an electron pump. It's about five to ten times longer than a current trip to the gas pump tends to take when pumps can push four to five gallons into your tank per minute. That's for consumer cars, not big rigs that have much larger tanks. Imagine the lines that would form at the pump, every day, all the time, if a single charge time isn't reduced by seventy to eighty percent. We can expect improvements, but those won't come without cost. Nothing does. There is no free lunch. Electrifying the auto fleet will require a massive overhaul of the power grid and an enormous increase in power generation.  Elon Musk recently said we might need double the amount of power we're currently generating if we go electric. He's not saying this from a position of opposing electric cars.  His Tesla dominates that market and he presumably wants to sell even more of them.

 

Toyota has publicly warned about this twice, while its smaller rival GM is pushing to go electric. GM may be virtue signaling to win favor with those in power in California and Washington and in the media. Toyota's addressing reality and its record is evidence that it deserves to be heard.

Toyota isn't saying none of this can be done, by the way. It's just saying that so far, the conversation isn't anywhere near serious enough to get things done.
 
 
  • Like 3
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

A LARGE number of industries, nations, and enterprises could, and should, learn a lot from Toyota and Honda. Not only dollars and cents, but management, resource relationships, security, infrastructure, and employee satisfaction. They aren't perfect, and no one is, but they are probably top of the heap in all that.

Electric may well be in our future, and hybrid tech is booming at the moment, but it should be a long way ahead of where it is. Electric cares aren't a new idea. The have been around in some form or another since the late 1800's. They have had several chances at it, but the tech just wasn't there. Wishful thinking don't feed the baby. 

Batteries, charging, infrastructure, power demand all play in, and the DC Criminals are just trying to diversify.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, DAKA said:
 
I urge all to read.  Author unknown. 

 

A Dose of Reality

 

Depending how and when you count, Japan's Toyota is the world's largest automaker. According to Wheels, Toyota and Volkswagen vie for the title of the world's largest, with each taking the crown from the other as the market moves. That's including Volkswagen's inherent advantage of sporting twelve brands versus Toyota's four. Audi, Lamborghini, Porsche, Bugatti, and Bentley are included in the Volkswagen brand family.

GM, America's largest automaker, is about half Toyota's size thanks to its 2009 bankruptcy and restructuring. Toyota is actually a major car manufacturer in the United States; in 2016 it made about 81% of the cars it sold in the U.S. right here in its nearly half a dozen American plants. If you're driving a Tundra, RAV4, Camry, or Corolla it was probably American-made in a red state. Toyota was among the first to introduce gas-electric hybrid cars into the market, with the Prius twenty years ago. It hasn't been afraid to change the car game.

 

All of this is to point out that Toyota understands both the car market and the infrastructure that supports it, perhaps better than any other manufacturer on the planet. It hasn't grown its footprint through acquisitions, as Volkswagen has, and it hasn't undergone bankruptcy and bailout as GM has. Toyota has grown by building reliable cars for decades.

 

When Toyota offers an opinion on the car market, it's probably worth listening to. This week, Toyota reiterated an opinion it has offered before. That opinion is straightforward: The world is not yet ready to support a fully electric auto fleet.

Toyota's head of energy and environmental research Robert Wimmer testified before the Senate this week, and said: "If we are to make dramatic progress in electrification, it will require overcoming tremendous challenges, including refueling infrastructure, battery availability, consumer acceptance, and affordability.”

Wimmer's remarks come on the heels of GM's announcement that it will phase out all gas internal combustion engines (ICE) by 2035. Other manufacturers, including Mini, have followed suit with similar announcements.

 

Tellingly, both Toyota and Honda have so far declined to make any such promises. Honda is the world's largest engine manufacturer when you take its boat, motorcycle, lawnmower, and other engines it makes outside the auto market into account. Honda competes in those markets with Briggs & Stratton and the increased electrification of lawnmowers, weed trimmers, and the like.
Wimmer noted that while manufacturers have announced ambitious goals, just 2% of the world's cars are electric at this point. For price, range, infrastructure, affordability, and other reasons, buyers continue to choose ICE over electric, and that's even when electric engines are often subsidized with tax breaks to bring pricetags down.

The scale of the switch hasn't even been introduced into the conversation in any systematic way yet. According to FinancesOnline, there are 289.5 million cars just on U.S. roads as of 2021. About 98 percent of them are gas-powered. Toyota's RAV4 took the top spot for purchases in the U.S. market in 2019, with Honda's CR-V in second. GM's top seller, the Chevy Equinox, comes in at #4 behind the Nissan Rogue. This is in the U.S. market, mind. GM only has one entry in the top 15 in the U.S. Toyota and Honda dominate, with a handful each in the top 15.

 

Toyota warns that the grid and infrastructure simply aren't there to support the electrification of the private car fleet. A 2017 U.S. government study found that we would need about 8,500 strategically-placed charge stations to support a fleet of just 7 million electric cars. That's about six times the current number of electric cars but no one is talking about supporting just seven million cars. We should be talking about powering about 300 million within the next twenty years, if all manufacturers follow GM and stop making ICE cars.
 
Simply put, we are gonna need a bigger energy boat to deal with connecting all those cars to the power grids, a WHOLE LOT bigger.

 

But instead of building a bigger boat, we may be shrinking the boat we have now. The power outages in California and Texas — the largest U.S. states by population and by car ownership — exposed issues with powering needs even at current usage levels. Increasing usage of wind and solar, neither of which can be throttled to meet demand, and both of which prove unreliable in crisis, has driven some coal and natural gas generators offline Wind simply runs counter to needs — it generates too much power when we tend not to need it, and generates too little when we need more. The storage capacity to account for this doesn't exist yet.

 

We will need much more generation capacity to power about 300 million cars if we're all going to be forced to drive electric cars. Whether we're charging them at home or charging them on the road, we will be charging them frequently. Every gas station you see on the roadside today will have to be wired to charge electric cars, and charge speeds will have to be greatly increased. Current technology enables charges in "as little as thirty minutes," according to Kelly Blue Book. That best-case scenario fast charging cannot be done on home power. It uses direct current and specialized systems. Charging at home on alternating current can take a few hours to overnight to fill the battery, and will increase the home power bill. That power, like all electricity in the United States, comes from generators using natural gas, petroleum, coal, nuclear, wind, solar, or hydroelectric power according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. I left out biomass because, despite Austin, Texas' experiment with purchasing a biomass plant to help power the city, biomass is proving to be irrelevant in the grand energy scheme thus far. Austin didn't even turn on its biomass plant during the recent freeze.

Half an hour is an unacceptably long time to spend at an electron pump. It's about five to ten times longer than a current trip to the gas pump tends to take when pumps can push four to five gallons into your tank per minute. That's for consumer cars, not big rigs that have much larger tanks. Imagine the lines that would form at the pump, every day, all the time, if a single charge time isn't reduced by seventy to eighty percent. We can expect improvements, but those won't come without cost. Nothing does. There is no free lunch. Electrifying the auto fleet will require a massive overhaul of the power grid and an enormous increase in power generation.  Elon Musk recently said we might need double the amount of power we're currently generating if we go electric. He's not saying this from a position of opposing electric cars.  His Tesla dominates that market and he presumably wants to sell even more of them.

 

Toyota has publicly warned about this twice, while its smaller rival GM is pushing to go electric. GM may be virtue signaling to win favor with those in power in California and Washington and in the media. Toyota's addressing reality and its record is evidence that it deserves to be heard.

Toyota isn't saying none of this can be done, by the way. It's just saying that so far, the conversation isn't anywhere near serious enough to get things done.
 
 

Quote: "Toyota isn't saying none of this can be done, by the way. It's just saying that so far, the conversation isn't anywhere near serious enough to get things done."

If the so-called "Leadership" in this country was serious about energy policies that would actually benefit the country instead of leading to it's destruction, they would be building more power plants NOW using existing technology in anticipation of the HUGE increase in demand for electricity that mandating EV's would create and necessitate that rationing of electricity and create utter chaos.

And I don't believe that even the progressive Dems are so stupid that they can't foresee this. I think utter chaos is exactly what they want because it would necessitate "Emergency Powers" AKA more government control,to the point of total government control AKA Totalitarianism even though they don't see it as totalitarianism as long as they are the ones in charge

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hybrid tech seems the obvious choice for moving forward. Too bad we're mired in yet another liberal political-class quagmire.  

My in-laws bought a new hybrid Sienna last year and it is great (even though it has no clutch). The move to EV uber alles is primarily about virtue signaling and palm-greasing (have we forgotten Solyndra?) :(

 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, gwalchmai said:

Hybrid tech seems the obvious choice for moving forward. Too bad we're mired in yet another liberal political-class quagmire.  

My in-laws bought a new hybrid Sienna last year and it is great (even though it has no clutch). The move to EV uber alles is primarily about virtue signaling and palm-greasing (have we forgotten Solyndra?) :(

 

 

2 hours ago, gwalchmai said:

Hybrid tech seems the obvious choice for moving forward. Too bad we're mired in yet another liberal political-class quagmire.  

My in-laws bought a new hybrid Sienna last year and it is great (even though it has no clutch). The move to EV uber alles is primarily about virtue signaling and palm-greasing (have we forgotten Solyndra?) :(

 

HYBRID should probably the FIRST STEP toward EV, then maybe in a few years see how that goes...

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, railfancwb said:

The “environmentalists” are hot to deactivate as many hydroelectric plants as they can. 

The entire EV and “green” energy appears to me as a way to keep the peons in their place. Arguably the greenest energy currently available is hydroelectric. 

But, but, we have to save the fishes!!! That's why California doesn't reclaim their rainfall and that's why they have droughts, and meanwhile they get their water from Boulder dam which is drying up. And all because reclaiming the rainfall would endanger the Delta Smelt.

And in Washington state the environ-MENTAL-ists want to shut down all the dams because Indians use to fish for salmon where most of the dams are. But now the salmon are gone and the Indians sdon't need to fish any more because they have the casinos.

The lunatics are now almost completely in charge of the asylum.

Also, there is a company in Canada that is close to developing Nuclear Fusion which is safe and uses up it's own waste. But our current government is so committed to "No Nukes" and so ignorant about the difference between Nuclear Fission and Nuclear Fusion that they would never allow it to be used and will never allow research into it's development.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Borg warner said:

But, but, we have to save the fishes!!! That's why California doesn't reclaim their rainfall and that's why they have droughts, and meanwhile they get their water from Boulder dam which is drying up. And all because reclaiming the rainfall would endanger the Delta Smelt.

And in Washington state the environ-MENTAL-ists want to shut down all the dams because Indians use to fish for salmon where most of the dams are. But now the salmon are gone and the Indians sdon't need to fish any more because they have the casinos.

The lunatics are now almost completely in charge of the asylum.

Also, there is a company in Canada that is close to developing Nuclear Fusion which is safe and uses up it's own waste. But our current government is so committed to "No Nukes" and so ignorant about the difference between Nuclear Fission and Nuclear Fusion that they would never allow it to be used and will never allow research into it's development.

What no 10% for the big guy?

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

More on the EV's  

 

 

Roy Exum

A Friday article on Chattanoogan.com read in part: “Chattanooga will be home to the nation’s largest electric vehicle ‘living testbed,’ thanks to $9.2 million in funding for a project proposed by the city and scientists at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga with municipal, private industry and research partners.

 

Funding will come from a $4.5-million U.S. Department of Transportation grant award - the single-largest of its kind in UTC history - announced this week and another $4.7 million from industry partners, UTC, Chattanooga city government and EPB.”

 

By happenstance, a revealing article has circulated on the Internet and its authors are urging readers to “avoid electric cars like the plague.” Read this one and you be the judge:

 

 

* * *

 

THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE SCAM

 

NOTE: This article, written by Dr.

 

Jay Lehr and Tom Harris, was posted on the ‘America Out Loud’ website on Jan 15, 2022 and has since been reprinted by other publications. Dr. Jay Lehr is a Senior Policy Analyst with the International Climate Science Coalition and Tom Harris is the Executive Director of the Ottawa, Canada-based International Climate Science Coalition.

 

The utility companies have thus far had little to say about the alarming cost projections to operate electric vehicles (EVs) or the increased rates that they will be required to charge their customers. It is not just the total amount of electricity required, but the transmission lines and fast charging capacity that must be built at existing filling stations. Neither wind nor solar can support any of it.

Electric vehicles will never become the mainstream of transportation!

 

In part 1 of our exposé on the problems with electric vehicles (EVs), we showed that they were too expensive, too unreliable, rely on materials mined in China and other unfriendly countries, and require more electricity than the nation can afford. In this second part, we address other factors that will make any sensible reader avoid EVs like the plague.

 

EV CHARGING INSANITY

 

In order to match the 2,000 cars that a typical filling station can service in a busy 12 hours, an EV charging station would require 600, 50-watt chargers at an estimated cost of $24 million and a supply of 30 megawatts of power from the grid. That is enough to power 20,000 homes. No one likely thinks about the fact that it can take 30 minutes to 8 hours to recharge a vehicle between empty or just topping off. What are the drivers doing during that time?

 

ICSC-Canada board member New Zealand-based consulting engineer Bryan Leyland describes why installing electric car charging stations in a city is impractical:

 

“If you’ve got cars coming into a petrol station, they would stay for an average of five minutes. If you’ve got cars coming into an electric charging station, they would be at least 30 minutes, possibly an hour, but let’s say its 30 minutes. So that’s six times the surface area to park the cars while they’re being charged. So, multiply every petrol station in a city by six. Where are you going to find the place to put them?”

 

The government of the United Kingdom is already starting to plan for power shortages caused by the charging of thousands of EVs. Starting in June 2022, the government will restrict the time of day you can charge your EV battery. To do this, they will employ smart meters that are programmed to automatically switch off EV charging in peak times to avoid potential blackouts.

In particular, the latest UK chargers will be pre-set to not function during 9-hours of peak loads, from 8 am to 11 am (3-hours), and 4 pm to 10 pm (6-hours). Unbelievably, the UK technology decides when and if an EV can be charged, and even allows EV batteries to be drained into the UK grid if required.

 

Imagine charging your car all night only to discover in the morning that your battery is flat since the state took the power back. Better keep your gas-powered car as a reliable and immediately available backup! While EV charging will be an attractive source of revenue generation for the government, American citizens will be up in arms.

 

THE USED CAR MARKET

 

The average used EV will need a new battery before an owner can sell it, pricing them well above used internal combustion cars. The average age of an American car on the road is 12 years. A 12-year-old EV will be on its third battery. A Tesla battery typically costs $10,000-plus so there will not be many 12-year-old EVs on the road. Good luck trying to sell your used green fairy tale electric car!

 

Tuomas Katainen, an enterprising Finish Tesla owner, had an imaginative solution to the battery replacement problem - he blew up his car! New York City-based Insider magazine reported (December 27, 2021):

 

“The shop told him the faulty battery needed to be replaced, at a cost of about $22,000. In addition to the hefty fee, the work would need to be authorized by Tesla… Rather than shell out half the cost of a new Tesla to fix an old one, Katainen decided to do something different…

 

The demolition experts from the YouTube channel Pommijätkät (Bomb Dudes) strapped 66 pounds of high explosives to the car and surrounded the area with slow-motion cameras…the 14 hotdog-shaped charges erupt into a blinding ball of fire, sending a massive shockwave rippling out from the car…The videos of the explosion have a combined 5 million views.”

 

YES, there are several videos available on YouTube of the exploding Tesla. CLICK HERE. 

 

We understand that the standard Tesla warranty does not cover “damage resulting from intentional actions,” like blowing the car up for a YouTube video.

 

EVs PER BLOCK IN YOUR NEIGHBORHOOD

 

A home charging system for a Tesla requires a 75-amp service. The average house is equipped with 100-amp service. On most suburban streets the electrical infrastructure would be unable to carry more than three houses with a single Tesla. For half the homes on your block to have electric vehicles, the system would be wildly overloaded.

 

LONG LIVE THE V-8!

 

Although the modern lithium-ion battery is four times better than the old lead-acid battery, gasoline holds 80 times the energy density. The great lithium battery in your cell phone weighs less than an ounce while the Tesla battery weighs 1,000 pounds. And what do we get for this huge cost and weight? We get a car that is far less convenient and less useful than cars powered by internal combustion engines. Bryan Leyland explained why:

 

“When the Model T came out, it was a dramatic improvement on the horse and cart. The electric car is a step backward into the equivalence of an ordinary car with a tiny petrol tank that takes half an hour to fill. It offers nothing in the way of convenience or extra facilities.”

 

OUR CONCLUSION

 

The electric automobile will always be around in a niche market likely never exceeding 10 percent of the cars on the road. All automobile manufacturers are investing in their output and all will be disappointed in their sales. Perhaps they know this and will manufacture just what they know they can sell. This is certainly not what President Biden or California Governor Newsom are planning for.

 

However, for as long as the present government is in power, they will be pushing the electric car as another means to run our lives. We have a chance to tell them exactly what we think of their expensive and dangerous plans when we go to the polls in November of 2022.

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Please Donate To TBS

    Please donate to TBS.
    Your support is needed and it is greatly appreciated.
×
×
  • Create New...