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Actual chance of having to use your CCW?


PNWguy
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Any one ever come across an actual statistic for the likelihood that a CCW holder will ever have to actually fire their weapon in self-defense?

Any actual numbers based on fact?

Was reading a post somewhere in which a guy bought a brand new Glock and shot 200 rounds through it.  It was of course, flawless.  He wasn't sure if that was enough yet to actually carry it.

I thought that was a bit absurd given the seemingly near zero chance of actually having to use a pistol in self-defense.

Got me to wondering if there are any actual numbers on the chances.

 

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18 hours ago, PNWguy said:

Any one ever come across an actual statistic for the likelihood that a CCW holder will ever have to actually fire their weapon in self-defense?

Any actual numbers based on fact?

Was reading a post somewhere in which a guy bought a brand new Glock and shot 200 rounds through it.  It was of course, flawless.  He wasn't sure if that was enough yet to actually carry it.

I thought that was a bit absurd given the seemingly near zero chance of actually having to use a pistol in self-defense.

Got me to wondering if there are any actual numbers on the chances.

 

It would be interesting to know. I used to subscribe to the local paper, the Spokane Spokesman-Review and follow cases of self defense regularly. what I noticed over about a 5 year period was that there seemed to be maybe 2 or 3 cases a year in the region. and those were the reported cases. Cases where no one is killed or injured are often un-reported. State-wide I don't know. What I paid attention to was how fairly home defenders were treated by the prosecution and whether they paid attention to things like what kind of gun or ammunition they used and if that was something the prosecution tried to use against the Homewoner.

Compared to when I used to live in Los Angeles, in Eastern Washington, home defenders are given a lot of leeway. where in California those who kill someone in self defense are prosecuted as if they were criminals.  In Washington, The Gale Gerlach case was a good example of this dramatic difference. Gale Gerlach, a plumber shot a man who was stealing his truck which he had left running in his driveway to warm it up. He shot him in the back of the head as the man was driving off in the truck but he claimed that he believed the man to be pointing a gun at him and fired in self defense. The man who was killed had a lengthy criminal record and the man who shot him was not and was acquitted. In the jury trial jurors voted 10-2 that Gerlach’s actions amounted to a justifiable homicide.  

http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2014/apr/11/gerlach-acquitted-in-shooting-death-of-fleeing/

I've carried a firearm daily since about 1998 and carried occasionally before that. and during that time I've never had to fire a gun in self defense. But there were 3 separate occasions when I came close to having to use the gun I was carrying and it was much better to have a gun and not need it than to need a gun an not have it. And since I have no way of knowing if I'll ever need a gun again, I still carry on a daily basis.

Edited by Borg warner
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5 minutes ago, Wayward Son said:

I don't know of any stats that show what you're looking for but I did read an article once that stated that the place you were most likely to need a gun was in your own home.

That depends a lot on where you live. I'm well equipped for home defense but I worry more about needing a gun when traveling.

Rest stops can be dangerous places as well as anywhere you might need to pull off the road for any reason. My brother and his wife wer attacked by a homeless man when they ran out of gas in California. while my brother was fighting with the man my SIL hit him over the head with a bicycle tire pump and he took off running. She hit him hard and completely bent the thing over his head. The womenfolk in my family are not to be messed with.

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As others have said, it is better to have and not need etc etc etc.  As for shooting 200 rounds and declaring the gun operational for CCW, I can see that as a start.  Hopefully, over the CCWer's lifetime of carrying, he'd have shot the gun a lot more during practices and while taking shooting classes etc...      

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I believe the risk can be mitigated by lifestyle.

As for what constitutes a tested handgun I don’t believe in a magic number of rounds, instead I shoot enough to be functional then shoot often enough to gain proficiency.


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13 hours ago, PATCHMAN said:

As others have said, it is better to have and not need etc etc etc.  As for shooting 200 rounds and declaring the gun operational for CCW, I can see that as a start.  Hopefully, over the CCWer's lifetime of carrying, he'd have shot the gun a lot more during practices and while taking shooting classes etc...      

Another thing are these shooting classes...

I hear about people spending thousands of dollars on classes for what statistically will never happen.

It's really more of a hobby and for entertainment than any practical reason.

When I lived in Arizona, I was near Gunsite.  I took my CCW class there.  It was great.

They tried to get me to sign up for their other courses which were around $1500.  They sounded fun and I know that I would have learned some cool gun fighting techniques, but I just couldn't justify the cost.

If others want to spend their time and money on that sort of thing, then fine.

Don't judge me for not taking tactical shooting classes and I won't judge you for not prepping for an attack against dress-wearing zombie raccoons.

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Defensive Use of Guns

Defensive use of guns by crime victims is a common occurrence, although the exact number remains disputed (Cook and Ludwig, 1996; Kleck, 2001a). Almost all national survey estimates indicate that defensive gun uses by victims are at least as common as offensive uses by criminals, with estimates of annual uses ranging from about 500,000 to more than 3 million (Kleck, 2001a), in the context of about 300,000 violent crimes involving firearms in 2008 (BJS, 2010). On the other hand, some scholars point to a radically lower estimate of only 108,000 annual defensive uses based on the National Crime Victimization Survey (Cook et al., 1997). The variation in these numbers remains a controversy in the field. The estimate of 3 million defensive uses per year is based on an extrapolation from a small number of responses taken from more than 19 national surveys. The former estimate of 108,000 is difficult to interpret because respondents were not asked specifically about defensive gun use.

 

Source

2013 study ordered by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and conducted by The National Academies’ Institute of Medicine and National Research Council

In the middle of page 15: https://www.nap.edu/read/18319/chapter/3?term=million#15

 

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I was going to amend my prior post because it reeked of snarkiness.

Decided to just let it stand and instead clarify.

I think defensive shooting classes are invaluable in the skills they teach.  If you take those classes and you find yourself in a defensive shooting situation, the skills you learned could very well save your life.

I have never had to fire my CCW in self-defense.  However, I have had to draw it a few times over the years and I acknowledge that guns are used to diffuse dangerous situations way more than reported.

I'm beginning to think that maybe I could use some more practice and training...

Edited by PNWguy
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3 hours ago, crockett said:

Defensive Use of Guns

Defensive use of guns by crime victims is a common occurrence, although the exact number remains disputed (Cook and Ludwig, 1996; Kleck, 2001a). Almost all national survey estimates indicate that defensive gun uses by victims are at least as common as offensive uses by criminals, with estimates of annual uses ranging from about 500,000 to more than 3 million (Kleck, 2001a), in the context of about 300,000 violent crimes involving firearms in 2008 (BJS, 2010). On the other hand, some scholars point to a radically lower estimate of only 108,000 annual defensive uses based on the National Crime Victimization Survey (Cook et al., 1997). The variation in these numbers remains a controversy in the field. The estimate of 3 million defensive uses per year is based on an extrapolation from a small number of responses taken from more than 19 national surveys. The former estimate of 108,000 is difficult to interpret because respondents were not asked specifically about defensive gun use.

 

Source

2013 study ordered by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and conducted by The National Academies’ Institute of Medicine and National Research Council

In the middle of page 15: https://www.nap.edu/read/18319/chapter/3?term=million#15

 

Considering their appalling performance on gun injuries "statistics", as argued by numerous other sources referred to in this article, I wouldn't believe any of their gun related claims.  They have an agenda showing.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-cdc-is-publishing-unreliable-data-on-gun-injuries-people-are-using-it-anyway/

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20 minutes ago, janice6 said:

Considering their appalling performance on gun injuries "statistics", as argued by numerous other sources referred to in this article, I wouldn't believe any of their gun related claims.  They have an agenda showing.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-cdc-is-publishing-unreliable-data-on-gun-injuries-people-are-using-it-anyway/

Obviously. But at least this part gave concealed carry some credibility.

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One day my best friend in town, an experienced and capable gentleman (to those in his favor), asked me for a gun because his wife had misplaced his. I asked him, "what caliber?".  He replied, "it doesn't matter. I only want something to make a little noise".

I would propose that most situations where a gun is drawn go unreported. Before she retired, I consulted Miss Cleo regularly so as to get advance notice of any incident that might be looming. ?  Just to cover all the bases. She missed a couple.

Which goes to show that no matter how hard you try, you can't always predict everything.

 

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I'm amazed at the number of guys that spend thousands of dollars per year on guns, ammo and accessories to justify self defense, only to find that they don't have a smoke detector or fire extinguisher in the house.

And fergodssake, don't ask them about motorcycle helmets or seatbelts.

I recognize it for what it primarily is.  A hobby.

It's semi-constitutionally protected, and I understand all the reasons for our freedoms and God given rights to keep and bear arms and America and everything.........but it's a hobby.

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Whenever I hear that question I think of fire insurance.  I've been paying it for about half a century, and have never used it. I wonder how much I've "invested". That cost is FAR more than I've spent on firearms and training.

Still, I admit self defense is also a hobby, whether it's empty-handed martial arts or with some type of weapon  And it doesn't hurt to remember that many people, myself included, have avoided violence by having ready access to a concealed pistol and the training to be vigilant while out and about. Those "statistics" aren't collected, as far as I know,  but are relevant to the ROI of having some type of training.

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On 10/4/2018 at 12:10 AM, Borg warner said:

That depends a lot on where you live. I'm well equipped for home defense but I worry more about needing a gun when traveling.

Rest stops can be dangerous places as well as anywhere you might need to pull off the road for any reason. My brother and his wife wer attacked by a homeless man when they ran out of gas in California. while my brother was fighting with the man my SIL hit him over the head with a bicycle tire pump and he took off running. She hit him hard and completely bent the thing over his head. The womenfolk in my family are not to be messed with.

I live in a nice area in the countryside and the only time I've had to pull my gun was in my own house. That was 20 or so years ago. 

Guy barged in while the wife and I were getting ready for bed. He was confronted by a naked me, my Hi Power and my 110 pound boxer/shepherd mix.

 

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The odds of having to use it are NOT 0%.  That's good enough for me.

 

Sometimes just having it on you is enough for the situation, or enough to put you in the frame of mind that you don't have to be scared of every little thing.  The confidence of having it can give you the posture/self awareness that may lead to a criminal leaving you alone and looking for a softer target.

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